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Few weeks ago we looked at the possibility of EURUSD reaching 1.45, well it did reach there. Since then EURUSD has come back down to 1.42 and it is time to review it again.

As always we will look at technical analysis first and then fundamental analysis.

Lets start with reviewing EURUSD technical analysis from 5th Apr and 23rd Mar. We anticipated a breakout to the upside towards 1.45 which came true in due course. Chart below shows before and after screenshots.

Lets analyze the current Daily chart, we can see that price came back down to re-test the breakout of Weekly Trendline. Right now it is resting on Daily Trendline, price is most likely price to bounce from here towards the upper daily trendline 1.4375 and may be even higher perhaps back to 1.45

If price starts to move lower then wait for it close below the Weekly and Daily Trendline and then look for short until 1.38

What’s keeping the EUR bears alive is the speculation that Greece would be forced to restructure its debt. So far this year EUR has gained strength on the basis that ECB will increase interest rates to curb the growing inflation in eurozone. We have already seen ECB increase interest rate earlier and more rises are likely to come in future, but overall debt worries from other countries in European union is denting the confidence.

US economy is not looking that great either. S&P yesterday revised their rating outlook from neutral to negative. This week we have existing home sales numbers from US due out as well, keep an eye on this news item.

Look for longs until 1.4375 and 1.45. If price manages to break and close below 1.42 then look for shorts until 1.38

EURUSD is at interesting crossroads and good time to analyze this pair both technically and fundamentally.

Before you read further I want to give you heads up on upcoming announcements about CandleTick EA and April Offer, look out for my email update soon.

Technical analysis of weekly EURUSD chart shows that price failed to break above the trendline and bounced lower from 1. 4265.  For price to make new highs it is important for price to break and close above this trendline

On EURUSD daily chart we can see how price failed to close above the resistance level at 1.4250. Price is likely to move lower towards the rising trendline.

Widely expected Interest rate decision from European Central Bank is due to come out on Thursday’s meeting. ECB is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points which currently stands at 1%. Future rate hikes later in the year are also on the cards.

Important point to note here is that EURUSD has already risen fair bit against USD and Yen this year and market seems reluctant in buying more before the ECB meeting.

Look for shorts until trendline and Support at 1.4080. Longs can be taken after price reach 1.4080 or if price close above 1.4250